What I propose to do in 10 minutes is just to say a few words about how a middle power like Canada can deal with the situation where the rules-based order is eroding, great power rivalries intensifying, and authoritarian models are hardening. 

That’s a simplified version of what's going on. And I'll start by admitting up front that we prospered under the old system. 

We were able to pursue values-based foreign policy based on, or anchored on, a rules-based multilateral trading system, an open global financial system. We had collective security anchored in NATO. Our geography hasn't changed, but the facts around the geography have changed. We had enviable geography. It gave us privileged access to the world's largest and most dynamic economy, and it distanced us from the major state and non-state threats.

We also subscribed to an expectation that non-market authoritarian countries would converge over time through engagement to free markets, open societies, and even democratic values.

And this meant, for a country with a values-based foreign policy, that our engagement with those countries could be justified by the expectation of progress. In fact, the very engagement helped with that progress and alignment of values was merely delayed, not compromised.

So, a few things have changed. Certainly, that convergence of values has proved elusive. 

The economic strategy of the United States has clearly changed from the support for the multilateral system to a more transactional and managed bilateral trade, an investment approach.

Global power is moving. You can debate how much or how far this will go – from American hegemony to great power rivalry – and technological change is shrinking that geographic advantage that we had and expanding the fields of conflict from the virtual to the extra-terrestrial.

All of this is reducing the effectiveness of our multilateral institutions, from the WTO to the UN, on which middle powers like Canada have greatly relied.

So, what do we do about it?

I'm going to give you a punch line, which is we think we can thrive in this new non-system or the system that's evolving for three reasons. 

The first is we have what the world wants, take on the energy side. We are an energy superpower that is going to become increasingly evident. 85% of our energy is clean. We're one of the world's largest LNG exporters, one of the largest reserves of oil and gas. We measure additions to our grid in 10 gigawatt chunks, to put it into perspective. We are top five in ten of the world's most important critical minerals. 40% of the world's listed mining companies are in Canada. We are a leading developer of AI, and our research universities are some of the biggest producers in volume of AI, computing, and quantum talent in the world. Unfortunately, most of them go to the United States. I understand you’re changing your visa policy here. So, we’re going to hang on to a few of those.

We have capital. Our pension funds are some of, if not the most, sophisticated infrastructure investors in the world.

And we have a government that still has fiscal capacity to act decisively at a moment when governments need to act decisively. 

Now, the second reason why I'd say we have good prospects, not assured prospects, but good prospects, is we have values to which much of the world, not all of the world, much of the world still aspires.

We're a pluralistic society that works. Our cities are among the most diverse in the world. Public square is loud, diverse, and free. By the nature of our federation, we have to practice collaboration and partnership. And it's a country that is still committed to sustainability.

And the third reason why I would argue we can thrive in this time is we recognise what's going on. This is not a transition; this is a rupture. This is a sharp change in a short period of time, driven by a variety of factors. We have a determination to rise up and meet this.

Our response to this is to build strength at home, to build resilience by diversifying abroad, and pursue a variable geography, to defend our values and pursue our interests.

So, just on strength at home, we've cut taxes on incomes and capital gains. We have removed all federal barriers to inter-provincial trade. We have passed landmark legislation to fast-track hundreds of billions of dollars of projects in energy, in AI, in critical minerals, and in new trade corridors.

We are doubling our defence spending by 2030. Our core capabilities with respect to defence, AI, quantum, cyber, and critical minerals provide unique opportunities for dual-use and economic benefit, and we intend to fully exploit those. 

We are diversifying our trading relationships and our security partnerships. We signed the most comprehensive agreement with the European Union from a non-European Union member – the Economic and Security Partnership with the EU. 

We are on track to be a full member of SAFE, the European defence arrangement, which allows us to diversify and accelerate our defence procurement.

This week, we agreed to a comprehensive approach within the context of USMCA, but a comprehensive approach with Mexico to deepen our bilateral trading relationships.

And we are pursuing more aggressive strategies throughout Asia.

The last of my threes is around that variable geography. I'll just give a couple of examples of where we're active. The Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, we are the largest contributor on a per capita basis to Ukraine.

When you think about our Arctic sovereignty that we are co-operating very closely with the Nordic-Baltic Eight for physical protection up there, economic development, and also defending NATO's western flank. We are active with like-minded parties in efforts to promote a two-state solution and Middle East peace.

I'll make one other point on critical minerals. We, out of the G7, are forming buyer's clubs for critical minerals so that the world can diversify away from Chinese dominance from them. So, it's not just a supply, but it's having that secure access to an offtake basically, so, these can be developed. 

Having chaired the G7 this year, I came into government six weeks before it was there. So, we didn't have Mike Froman, we had very good Sherpa, but we didn’t have Mike Froman. So, we had a lot of work to do. It was a very interesting and, this is a variable geometry support point. When we had two days, the first day, core G7 focused on a variety of issues.

President Trump was there for that day, and these were good meetings. There was progress made. Not everything landed, but it's never the case that everything lands. 

It was fairly narrowly focused, though, on economics, with Iran thrown in. The next day, with the leaders of most of the BRICS countries, some of the largest emerging economies, and Australia. The focus was on what this room would recognise as old multilateralism: global comments where we're co-operating on energy, what we can do to actually develop on critical minerals, financing for development, what's going to happen at COP.

That doesn't mean that's the way the world's working. I'm not naive about that. But there is a substantial proportion of the world that focuses on these issues. A country like Canada is one of them, and it's something we will continue to do because it comes back into our strengths.

I would ask you to think about Canada as a strong, sovereign, independent nation.

But there is there is a big opportunity in this shifting in Canada. We understand what's going on. We understand the scale of the responses required. We have the resources that the world needs. We have the talent to turn that potential into growth. We're a reliable partner. We're connected, more than anyone else, through trading relationships with any other part of the world.

And we're no longer relying on just the strength of our values, but the value of our strength with your help.

Thank you very much.