Thank you, Michael Fullilove, for that kind introduction.
This Institute, for over two decades, has hosted some of the most important conversations about our world’s future.
I am grateful for the opportunity to contribute at this crucial time.
This evening, I will talk about what the rupture in the world order means for countries like Canada, how we are building our strategic autonomy at home, partnering with allies like Australia, and, together, how we will shape the next global order.
Because we know that the world has changed – and so must we. We take the world as it is, not passively waiting for the world as we wish it to be. We can leverage the trust and legitimacy we have built over a century to build our prosperity and strengthen our security.
If middle powers work together, we can do more than protect our sovereignty; we can build something better, more prosperous, and more just than what came before.
The world order is undergoing a rupture. The old norms of the rules-based international order are being erased, and that new system that will ultimately emerge has yet to be built.
Global institutions have often been too slow to react to crises, and too ineffective when they did.
This break has been building over time.
Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration.
More recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, and supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.
Countries cannot “live within the lie” of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of their subordination.
Geo-strategically, hegemons are increasingly acting without constraint or respect for international norms or laws, while others bear the consequences.
The extremes of this disruption are occurring in real time in the Middle East.
To be clear, Canada has long seen Iran as the principal source of instability and terror in the Middle East. The regime and its proxies have murdered hundreds of Canadian civilians and caused untold suffering for millions of people in the Middle East and beyond.
Despite more than two decades of negotiations and diplomatic efforts, Iran has not dismantled its nuclear programme, nor halted its enrichment activities. Canada has long supported the imperative of neutralising this grave global threat.
We stand with the Iranian people in their long and courageous struggle against the regime’s oppressive rule. Which is why we support efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security. We are actively taking on the world as it is, not passively waiting for a world we wish to be.
We also take this position with some regret, because the current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order.
Despite decades of United Nations Security Council resolutions, the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and a succession of sanctions and diplomatic frameworks, Iran’s nuclear threat remains. And now the United States and Israel have acted without engaging the United Nations or consulting with allies, including Canada.
So, the question is, where to from here? With a rapidly spreading conflict and growing threats to civilian life, Canada reaffirms that international law binds all belligerents. We condemn the strikes carried out by Iran on civilians and civilian infrastructure across the Middle East. We implore all parties, including the United States and Israel, to respect the rules of international engagement.
We call for a rapid de-escalation of hostilities and are prepared to assist in achieving this goal. Resolution of this crisis requires commitment to a broader political solution.
Diplomatic engagement is essential to avoid a wider and deeper conflict. Civilians must be protected, and all parties must commit to finding enduring agreements to end both nuclear proliferation and terrorist extremism.
Canada will continue to pursue this approach with like-minded countries and participants in conflict. I would now like to turn to the broader challenge to sovereignty and prosperity, starting with the overall context.
Middle powers like Canada, and I would suggest Australia, should recognise this rupture in the international system represents a clear break from the past – and act decisively to secure our shared future.
The good news is we have the capacity to build important elements of a new order that encompasses our values, including respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
And to make this practical, let me highlight three principles that help us to achieve this goal.
First, the requirements for sovereignty have evolved – and so must we.
Right now, many countries are concluding that they must develop greater strategic autonomy, and that impulse is understandable. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself. A country that cannot feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options.
In the 21st century, the economic security and prosperity of our countries extend far beyond food, conventional energy, and defence, as important and fundamental as these are.
Today, sovereignty requires reliable access to space-based communications and semiconductors. It requires unhindered access to artificial intelligence (AI), digital sovereignty, critical minerals, payment systems, clean energy technologies and vaccines.
Because governments and businesses have long prioritised efficiency over resilience, we have all developed supply chains and trading relationships that create dependence on hegemons and hyperscalers for essential determinants of sovereignty.
Canada’s strategic imperative is to build sovereign capabilities and resilient options in these critical sectors, at home and with trusted partners like Australia, to ensure that integration is never again a source of our subordination.
Second, building true sovereignty cannot be achieved in isolation; it requires diversification and partnership.
Canada is focused on building a dense web of connections – ad hoc coalitions that work, issue by issue, with partners that share enough common ground to act together.
In contrast, great powers can afford to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity, and the leverage to dictate terms.
Middle powers like Canada do not. But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what is offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.
This is not sovereignty. It is the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.
In a world of great power rivalry, countries like ours have a choice: to compete with each other for favour or to combine to create a third path with impact.
This creates enormous opportunities for Canada and Australia to work together, at a minimum to limit risk, but really to increase prosperity and to build our collective sovereignty.
For example, Canada, like Australia, has one of the largest critical minerals reserves in the world – we are abundant in those minerals most in demand and most necessary for military and economic strength. We are building out our critical minerals alliance with Australia, creating the largest minerals reserve held by trusted democratic nations.
Together, we produce more than one third of global lithium, a third of uranium supply, more than 40% of iron ore, and a combined $25 billion war chest to fast-track projects. Globally, we are number one and number two as the most attractive mining investment jurisdictions in the world.
I’ll give another example. We’ve just launched our first-ever Defence Industrial Strategy. We will invest $500 billion into our broader defence ecosystem over the next decade. Right now, when we spend capital on defence, 70 cents of those dollars goes to the United States. That doesn’t make sense from a risk management perspective. And it doesn’t make sense when you’re substantially increasing your expenditures.
A key pillar of our strategy is partnering with likeminded allies such as Australia. One example is the Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar that we are jointly developing. Many more can follow, and given the changing nature of warfare, that means from AI to aerospace.
The nations that invest in their own capabilities across strategic sectors – and partner with like-minded allies – will multiply their strength to form coalitions. They become a more effective bloc to deter aggression, protect their supply chains, and realise their core economic interests.
That’s why Canada is rapidly diversifying our partnerships.
That’s why we have signed 20 new economic and security agreements across four continents in the last 11 months.
It’s why we were the first non-EU country to join the Security Action for Europe defence procurement programme in Europe.
And it’s why we are working with Australia to build a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union, which would create a new trading bloc of 1.5 billion people.
Australia understands well the value of partnerships. Your regional partnerships – including AUKUS and the Quad, as well as our G7 critical minerals alliance – multiply Australia’s power and overall effectiveness.
My final point is that middle powers, working together, can not only build true sovereignty – we can also help shape the next global order.
Australia and Canada cannot compel like the great powers; but we can convene, set the agenda, shape the rules, and organise and build capacity through coalitions to deliver results at speed and global scale. Because we have two advantages that the hegemons lack.
The first is legitimacy and trust. Canada and Australia have built this up in abundance over a century. We respect our commitments. When we sign deals, we honour them. When we join multilateral efforts, we multiply their impact. Other countries know we mean what we say and value our partnership.
Hegemons can compel. But compulsion comes with costs – both reputational and financial. Change through compulsion does not last. By contrast, using trust to convene like-minded nations, to work together, creates lasting change and stronger new institutions and systems.
Middle powers have more power than many realise.
Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea. This coalition has a larger GDP than the United States, three times the trade flows of China, the largest research and development spend in the world, 62 of the top 100 universities, and is the largest source of cultural exports globally.
If we work together, in variable geometry – different coalitions for different issues -- we can do more than protect our sovereignty; we can build something better, more prosperous, and more just than what came before.
This is multilateralism’s evolution – renewing the international order through new institutions with new capacities. Setting the agenda. Convening fellow middle powers to build a better world.
Not all at once – but one issue, one strategic sector, one coalition at a time.
Thank you very much.